‘Wicked’ is a box office hit and a likely awards contender. Here are the takeaways

Once in a while, the box office needs a jump start, and it got one over the weekend with the combined appeal of “Wicked” and “Gladiator II,” two movies aimed at vastly different audiences that lifted theaters with a combined $169.5 million in ticket sales from Thursday night through Sunday.
And while it wasn’t another “Barbenheimer” moment — no amount of marketing spend can manufacture that kind of viral phenomenon — it should kick off a strong holiday week for moviegoing, with Disney’s “Moana 2” arriving in theaters Wednesday.
“Wicked,” Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the first act of the Broadway sensation, led the way with an outstanding $114 million in revenue from the U.S. and Canada, a record for a musical theater adaptation.
Sources say weekday presales for the $150-million “Wicked” are encouraging, with audiences treating it like a Broadway production by reserving tickets in advance and making an evening of it. They’re watching it with friends and family members and going out before or after the show.
It could add $75 million to $85 million during the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, with Universal Pictures counting on fans going out to see it multiple times.
Box office momentum is expected to continue, with “Moana 2” projected to gross $125 million to $135 million by Sunday, according to prerelease audience surveys. That’s a relief for theater owners after a somewhat lackluster fall. It’s unclear how much “Moana 2,” another music-driven film, might affect “Wicked’s” performance, given their overlapping audiences. (“Wicked’s” international grosses have been so-so thus far.)
For Universal film boss Donna Langley, who was recently promoted to chair of NBCUniversal Entertainment & Studios, it’s clearly a winning moment. Universal is coming off an impressive run, including this year’s best picture Oscar winner, “Oppenheimer.”
“Wicked” appears to have awards potential, with a 90% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, a 97% audience rating and an “A” grade from CinemaScore. Although it’s early days, a popular, upbeat movie probably will get some attention amid a field crowded with festival darlings.
A couple of takeaways:
First, Hollywood needs to remember to make stuff for women and girls in particular, as demonstrated by the success of “Barbie” and “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” last year. The opening-weekend audience for “Wicked” was 72% female. The film’s PG rating is a bit of a throwback for a big commercial live-action film, but it makes sense when you realize how similar it is to something like “Frozen.”
Also, studios need not fear the musical theater adaptation. Sure, musicals can flop, as “Cats” and “Dear Evan Hansen” did, but powerful songs can resonate with audiences and keep them coming back. Promotional campaigns for movies like “Mean Girls” seemed to downplay their musical elements. “Wicked,” in contrast, wore its theater-kid energy on its pink sleeves.
Another lesson is that if you really think you have a hit on your hands, you have to go for it. The studio waged a massive marketing campaign, putting Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo everywhere it could, and went all out with retail “co-branding” initiatives.
The company gambled big-time by splitting the play into two movies. The first film, at 2 hours and 40 minutes, is about as long as the entire play, with intermission. But it mostly works, with the climatic number “Defying Gravity” providing a rousing send-off. “Part Two” comes out a year from now and likely will do huge business.
The picture has the benefit of being both escapist entertainment (never a disadvantage) and timely, given its political messaging. The stage production debuted in 2003 during the George W. Bush administration and the war on terror, and the play’s critiques were as unsubtle then as the movie’s are now.
Ultimately, theatrical movies must differentiate themselves from what audiences can get at home.
That means creating events where people go out, get a little dressed up and exit the theater on an emotional high, humming the tunes, just like with a Broadway spectacle or even the 1939 “Wizard of Oz.” In that sense, “Wicked,” apart from its CGI wizardry, is about as old-school as it gets.
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The Peacock is shedding some plumage. Last week NBCUniversal parent Comcast said it intends to spin off most of its cable networks — including E!, MSNBC and CNBC — as a separate company.
As my colleague Meg James wrote, this is the latest bleak sign for the long-beleaguered pay-TV business, which continues to lose subscribers by the millions.
“For now, Comcast’s cable channels remain a viable business by generating $7 billion in annual revenue,” James wrote. “But you have only to look at the properties the Philadelphia cable giant is keeping to see how the top brass has picked future winners and losers in a fast-changing media landscape.”
The winners here include the NBC broadcast network, the Universal film and television studios, the theme parks, local TV stations and streaming service Peacock, which now has 36 million subscribers. NBCUniversal is also keeping one cable programmer, Bravo (franchises such as “The Real Housewives” do well on streaming).
The rest, along with Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes, are headed to the so-called SpinCo.
You have to assume Comcast doesn’t simply want to send its cable network assets off to melt away on their own. Analysts believe the move is meant to set the stage for a future transaction. Perhaps SpinCo will be acquired by a rival or private equity company. Maybe it will seek to combine with other future discarded programmers and try to consolidate power in carriage negotiations.
More splits and roll-ups are possible, even likely, now with the Trump administration coming into office. Media executives have been hoping for a regulatory environment more amenable to mergers and acquisitions as many of their core business come under heavy financial pressure.
On-location filming rose on a week-to-week basis, according to FilmLA data.
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